Simulations of Infectious Disease Propagation II: Herd Immunity Examined

The findings of simulations of an infectious disease’s spread are provided. The idea of “Herd Immunity” (HI) is frequently cited in managing and controlling the development of infectious diseases, such as Covid-19, when the disease’s propagation will diminish to a manageable level. We have expanded on a prior paper by emphasising the utility of this concept. The goal of this study was to analyse HI and track the spread of an infectious disease as a function of population density and time. The people were split into two groups. The infection was not passed on to one of the groups. The second group was not protected in any way. The results are presented as a function of time as a percentage of the unprotected population that is infected. To track the spread of the disease across the population, we employed computer modelling on a person-by-person basis. The people are first distributed in a square in a consistent manner. People’s movement was recreated by each participant taking a random walk. The unprotected part of the population’s infection rates are plotted as a function of time. If two persons were closer than a certain distance apart, the disease might be transmitted from an infected person to an uninfected person. These simulations reveal that the unprotected population is in grave danger if necessary precautions are not taken soon. After about 100,000 iterations, the infection rate for 400 unprotected subjects was 100%. We provide the findings of a dual simulation in which a major portion of the population was shielded and the simulation was run until all of the unprotected became infected. The protection was lifted in the second section to test how quickly the entire population was sick. It took 400,000 iterations to infect the unprotected folks in the instance of the 50% protected. It took 150,000 people to infect the other half after the limitations were repealed. The simulations here are based on humans, which has the advantage of allowing participants to observe their own personal engagement. Infection rates for 1,000, 2,500, 5,000, and 10,000 persons were computed. The disease can spread quickly and is dependent on population density. The sickness must be contained, thus protection is essential. Restrictions must be relaxed gradually and carefully, otherwise the entire population will be jeopardised. According to the findings, the idea of HI is not a realistic option for regulating or managing the disease’s transmission. We also show the number of people infected by one person during the experiment.

Author(S) Details

William J. B. Oldham, Jr.
Texas Tech University 3877 Royal Troon Dr. Round Rock, 78664 Texas, USA.

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