Recent Study on Mathematical Model of Zoonotic Influenza Subtype A (H7N9) Spread in Human Population


This paper deals with the dynamics of zoonotic influenza type H7N9 human infection, both in birds and in humans. Most human cases of infection with A(H5N1) and A(H7N9) have been related to direct or indirect contact with contaminated live or dead poultry. It is critical to control the disease at the source of the animal to reduce the risk to humans. H7N9 has the potential to develop into a global threat, with one significant restriction right now that limits its potential to spread. A virus mutation can increase zoonotic influenza infection and its risk of becoming a pandemic influenza. We devised a statistical model of the impact of avian influenza on the population of humans and birds. A basic reproduction number for both the human and bird population has been computed,
R0 and Rb0  respectively, thus we have proved that the model is locally and globally asymptotically stable for disease – free equilibrium points when basic reproduction number for both populations is < 1. The endemic equilibrium point, which is globally asymptotically stable when > 1. in the bird population, is also proven. For different parameters of the model, extensive numerical simulations and sensitivity analysis are done. Critically analysed and divided into their respective classes are the effects of vaccination, sequestration and recovery. As evidenced by the simulations, the study model yields satisfactory results and can be used country-wise to predict future epidemic situations. In these different scales, we use real data and our model helps us to generalise our forecasts and make better recommendations for controlling this epidemic. Our next research will be focused on geographical consideration of secret factors that influence immunity, birth rate, and death rate.

Author (s) Details

Durgesh Nandini Sinha
Department of Mathematics, Temple University, Philadelphia, USA and Strayer University, Online Division, USA.

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