The prediction of multicommodity freight flows over a multimodal network has attracted much interest in the recent years. An implementation of the International Freight Simultaneous Transportation Equilibrium Model (IFSTEM) that developed in United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), to the goods trade through the ports and lands of Sultanate of Oman is presented. The transportation network is usually modeled in a simplistic way (bipartite network) and these models rely to a large extent on the supply and demand functions of the producers and consumers respectively. Although some socio-economic variables, which are not available, were required for IFSTEM model calibration, some reasonable assumptions were made and it was good enough to draw the following main findings: the proposed alternative enhancement scenarios were four nested scenarios, i.e., each scenario included the previous one plus an additional enhancement. These four enhancement scenarios were analyzed against and compared with scenario (0), i.e., the reference “Do nothing” scenario. The analysis has been achieved in two stages. The first stage involved the prediction of international trade flows (imports, exports and re-exports), times and costs That would benefit from the application throughout the study period through the target year of 2040 of the 4 alternative enhancement scenarios. The results of the forecast show that Oman’s projected foreign trade flows (imports, exports and re-exports) have risen by more than 504% by 2040 compared to the current situation in the base year 2012. This rise would reflect about 70 percent by 2040 relative to the “do nothing” reference scenario, assuming that during the study period from 2012 to 2040, the average increase in foreign trade flows in the “do nothing” case would be around 4 percent annually. The estimates of average total travel time and total cost per tonne showed an expected decrease of about 25 percent and 20 percent, respectively, relative to the reference scenario. Compared to the “Do nothing” comparison case, these findings are internally consistent and reflect relatively substantial changes.
Author (s) Details
Dr. Mohamad K. Hasan
Department of Information Systems and Operations Management, College of Business Administration, Kuwait University P.O. Box 5486, Safat 13055, Kuwait.
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